Above average hurricane season predicted by CSU researchers
Advisen
Above average hurricane season predicted by CSU researchers
By Chad Hemenway, Advisen
The earliest seasonal forecast of the year released by the well-renowned research team at Colorado State University calls for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with a nearly 70 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline in 2020.
Now led by research scientist Philip J. Klotzbach, who took over for William M. Gray following his death in 2016, the team forecasts 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes of Category 3 strength (sustained winds of 111mph) or greater for 2020.
Klotzbach said El Nino conditions, which produce winds that typically break up developing hurricanes, are not likely this summer and fall. Plus, the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean is warmer than normal now, which “provides more fuel for developing tropical cyclones,” Klotzbach said. Warm water is also associated with low pressure and more moisture – both favorable for storm formation and intensification.
The average hurricane season has about 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The season (June 1 – November 30) in 2019 had 18 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Though it was a slightly above-average season, the U.S. for the most part was spared.
Now in its 37th year of forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season, the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project said the early chance of a major hurricane making landfall in Florida in 2020 is 31 percent, which leads all states, followed by Texas and Louisiana at 19 percent and 16 percent, respectively.
CSU will issue its next update to the forecast at the start of June.
